Urban areas poised for downstate influx: Report

When Julia Whitney Barnes and her husband learned they would be having a child, the Brooklyn couple knew they would have to find something larger than their tiny apartment.

Add to that the fact the two artists each had a studio and a pair of storage spaces, "and we were paying five rents."

They looked all over the Hudson Valley, but settled on an Arts-and-Crafts-style home in the City of Poughkeepsie.

GROWTH: County leaders talk economic development, consolidation

PATTERN: Mid-Hudson sees population decline, fewer kids

AGING: Valley's home health care services must increase

"We fell in love with the architecture and this crumbling grandeur that felt really inviting," Barnes said. "We keep meeting great people here and love the meandering streets."

Barnes is part of what is expected to be a growing influx of New York City-area transplants to the Hudson Valley's urban centers, according to a report released Thursday by the nonprofit Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress.

What was spurred by fear after the 9/11 attacks is expected to be stoked again, this time by expense, as New York City's cost of living continues to spiral upward.

That leaves the Hudson Valley's urban areas poised for growth — and in need of a plan, an "Urban Action Agenda," as the nonprofit calls it.

"Should it happen again," Pattern for Progress CEO Jonathan Drapkin said, "you should be prepared."

The Pattern for Progress agenda targets 12 cities, 10 villages, two towns and one unincorporated hamlet in a nine-county region stretching from Westchester County to Columbia County east of the Hudson River, and from Rockland to Greene on the west side.

Four Dutchess communities — the cities of Beacon and Poughkeepsie, the Town of Fishkill (including the Village of Fishkill) and the Village of Wappingers Falls — were examined. Ellenville, Kingston and Saugerties are included from Ulster.

The report identifies 11 areas to improve and revitalize communities. And it serves as a stepping-off point for a larger discussion through the coming months.

Perhaps of greatest concern is the disparity between the increase of home values and incomes. Adjusted for inflation, home values in the 25 communities increased between 25 and 50 percent since 2000 while wages remained stagnant, the report found.

But locally, there are hopeful signs. Beacon, Fishkill and Wappingers Falls are among the only urban communities where the median household income has increased.

Another bright spot: Fishkill and Poughkeepsie ranked as the lowest and third-lowest communities when property taxes were measured against home value in 2014. (Yonkers had the second-lowest rate.)

And despite public perceptions otherwise, property and violent crimes have decreased region-wide since 1990.

Indeed, Poughkeepsie is often perceived as a place where crime is increasing, when in fact, violent crime dropped after 1990, peaked again in the 2000s, but has since dropped to near 15-year lows. Property crimes in the city dropped steadily since 1990, hitting new lows in 2015.

"This is a safe city and it’s important that people know that," Poughkeepsie Mayor Rob Rolison said, "and come to visit here and take in the restaurants and the arts and all the things the city has to offer."

Gov. Andrew Cuomo's tax cap has made it difficult for urban areas to address issues like aging infrastructure. Local governments need more flexibility, the report said. Drapkin suggested removing infrastructure projects from the tax-cap limitations.

Transportation remains a concern, since the vast majority of commuters still rely on single-occupant cars. The report highlighted Wappingers Falls as one of the few communities were there has been an increase in people walking to work.

Wappingers Falls Mayor Matt Alexander said the village has aggressively sought funding for transportation-related improvements.

"We have been improving our sidewalk surfaces," Alexander said, "but we know that we still have more sidewalks to replace."

Pattern for Progress will be working with leaders of the 25 communities to foster dialogue, gather more data and share best practices.

Alex Liebman, a 31-year-old freelance photographer and commercial producer, moved to the City of Poughkeepsie in May from Manhattan.

Liebman said he was drawn to the city for its potential, which is reflected in the name of an increasingly popular Instagram site dubbed "#poughtential."

Though he still commutes on some days to the city, Liebman wants to change that.

"The most important thing, the dream," he said, "is never to go back there again. I would love to have a business upstate and contribute to a growing economy outside of New York (City)."

John Ferro: 845-437-4816, jferro@poughkeepsiejournal.com, Twitter: @PoJoEnviro